Redrawing the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan and the Role of the Gulf

The Middle East is experiencing a seismic geopolitical transformation. At its core is a strategic U.S.-Israeli agenda aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power—curbing Iran’s influence, neutralizing its proxies, and embedding Israel into a broader Arab security architecture. While this may appear distant to the average Pakistani observer, its ramifications stretch far beyond the Arabian Peninsula. Washington’s goals are clear: deny Iran nuclear capabilities, roll back its proxy militias in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, protect Israel from existential threats, and prevent Moscow or Beijing from establishing permanent strategic footprints in the region. Israel, serving as the operational spearhead of this policy, has already degraded Iranian-affiliated militias. What once were “shadow wars” are now becoming open confrontations. Caught between shifting tectonic plates are the Gulf States. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is being positioned as the linchpin. In exchange for security guarantees and access to civilian nuclear technology, Riyadh is inching toward normalization with Tel Aviv. This would represent a watershed moment—not just for Arab-Israeli relations—but for the future of Palestinian diplomacy. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates continues to deepen technological and security ties with Israel, while Qatar maintains its trademark hedging—hosting American forces yet continuing support for soft political Islam. Bahrain and Oman toe a Saudi line, with Kuwait constrained by domestic conservatism but broadly aligned with Gulf policy trends. What emerges is a probable future scenario where a de facto Sunni-Israeli bloc—backed by Washington—confronts a diplomatically and militarily cornered Iran. This axis would likely result in Israel being plugged into Arab missile defense, cyber warfare, and intelligence-sharing frameworks. Russia’s declining influence in Syria due to the Ukraine war, and China’s non-military posture, leave space open for U.S.-led consolidation. For Pakistan, the implications are manifold. First, a widened Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt oil markets, exerting economic pressure on import-dependent economies like ours. Second, the potential Saudi-Israeli normalization may bring India—Israel’s strategic defense partner—closer to the Gulf, rebalancing regional influence away from Islamabad. Third, sectarian blowback, especially in vulnerable regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, or urban Punjab, cannot be ruled out. Pakistan’s best option is one of strategic neutrality. Islamabad must avoid visibly aligning with either camp while reinforcing internal harmony and economic resilience. It must call out on Israeli aggresion and condemn Israel's violation of Iran's sovereignty. Pakistan must continue diplomatic engagement through the OIC and multilateral platforms—not just to safeguard Palestinian rights, but to prevent a regional arms race that could include nuclear ambitions. Four strategic scenarios are emerging. One, a pro-Western Sunni bloc where Israel, GCC states, and Egypt isolate Iran. Two, a continuation of fragmented proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Three, Israel’s strategic centrality as it fuses into Arab defense infrastructure. And four, a grand bargain involving Saudi normalization, American nuclear cooperation, and regional containment of Iran. Each scenario presents unique risks—sectarian backlash, nuclear proliferation, grassroots resistance to normalization, and a potential revival of extremist networks. Pakistan must therefore insulate its domestic space, build strategic oil reserves, and develop shock absorption for economic turbulence. The redrawing of the Middle East is underway. It is not just about borders or alliances—it is about a transformation in how the region defines security, legitimacy, and partnership. For Pakistan, the challenge is to remain diplomatically agile while keeping its economic and sectarian stability intact.