SPECIAL REPORT NORTH WAZIRISTAN – THE DEATH TRAP (Published on 4 Jan 2011) SUMMARY
The report is authored by Mr Shemrez Nauman Afzal from Spearhead Research, which is a Lahore-based private, non-partisan and apolitical centre for research, analysis and consultancy. Terming North Waziristan a “Death Trap” the author has primarily build up a case for non-launching of any major operation in the agency and proffered alternative methodology of cutting out peace deal to handle the situation in North Waziristan until certain conditions are met viz stabilisation of situation in FATA with civilian administration on ground, effective sealing of Durand Line from both sides and availability of sufficient resources to undertake operation of this magnitude. Such methodology warrants active support from US/ NATO Forces. In his view, while Pakistan is confronted with precarious regional and internal security situation, recourse to military option in the obtaining environment will further exacerbate the already fragile security situation in Pakistan and complicate its security dilemma.
The author views with great susceptibility the latest review of the Af-Pak strategy carried out in Dec 2010 especially so in the backdrop of contradictory intelligence assessments where even some have termed it to be “a self-fulfilling Afghanistan assessment devoid of any substantial feedback from native Afghans and one wholly disconnected from the objective reality of retrogressing conditions on the ground.” The review also calls for progressive draw down of US forces from Afghanistan including clandestine operatives commencing July 2011 through 2014 as well as bolstering unconventional technologies use of drones. Against this backdrop, the author has maintained that fierce and warrior nature of Pashtuns and their disdain for foreigners occupying their land will never let them surrender their struggle. Weakening of Coalition’s will shall add to the strength of all those fighting the occupation forces. To this the history stands testimony. If the outcome is to be changed and semblance of peace and tranquillity is to prevail, there is a need to affect a change in US attitude and approach as it greatly affects not only Afghanistan but Pakistan too.
In building up his arguments against an operation in North Waziristan, the author has traced down and drawn relevant conclusions from the history of the region, tribal structure/ traditions and developments that have taken place since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and its spilling over effect on Pakistan. He maintains that the root causes of the terrorism and extremism is not the conservative ethos and religious faith of the tribal folk but poverty and lack of opportunities and social safety nets. The writer than has covered extensive details and affects of the successful operations that Pakistan Army conducted in FATA primarily South Waziristan Agency and in Swat. He has also dilated upon the effects of US Strategy astride Durand Line, which in his reckoning has done more harm than good. It has been so because of the US obsession with use-of-force oriented militaristic option. Without regards to cultural and social sensitivities this approach has alienated even moderate strata of society both in Afghanistan and tribal region in Pakistan. Most importantly the drone attacks, which have resulted into large amount of collateral damage which serve as an ideal recruiting windfall for the Taliban.
With US focus on military option, the political, economic and social prongs of the Afghan strategy largely remained neglected which has taken its toll in form of prolonging the war to its 10th year. The writer has stressed that it is high time now that the US admits the follies it committed since its invasion like non-sealing of porous Durand Line during initial hunt for Al Qaeda members thus facilitating their escape into FATA and specially of drawing distinctions between Al Qaeda, Taliban and other fighters. Taliban (Pushtuns) are an ethnic reality in the region and are largely fighting a war of national liberation and now control most of southern and eastern Afghanistan. There is a need to delink them from Al- Qaeda inspired ideology and that can be done by initiating talks with the Taliban leading to a political settlement. This will isolate Al Qaeda from its work force and facilitate their elimination through propaganda campaign and active engagement. Unless US/ NATO/ ISAF understand and realise the criticality of negotiations and isolating Al Qaeda, no workable outcome can be reached on Afghanistan and thus Pakistan.
The writer has further highlighted that the history and culture of Afghanistan and Pakistan are intertwined. The US needs to clearly define the end state in Afghanistan and needs to understand that any Pakistani effort to effectively counter threat of militant extremism is dependent upon the US strategy on the other side of the border. The US must therefore, factor in the security imperatives of Pakistan in formulating and executing any strategy for the region. The US mantra of doing more with respect to Pakistan without being sensitive to Pakistan’s strategic constraints and restraints cannot be termed as a practical and war wining strategy. There is a need for both sides to learn and relearn from experiences of each other acquired in 10 year-long war to achieve common set of goals and objectives and steer the war to its logical conclusion.
Tahir Terry · Monday, Apr 25, 2011
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